Tuesday, August 13, 2013

Judge Shira Scheindlin: Stop and Frisk

Which Kids Will Be Stopped and Frisked?

Judge Scheindlin





As expected (see Mad Dog's May 28th post),Judge Shira Scheindlin ruled against the City of New York, its police department, its mayor in the stop and frisk cases.

Why should anyone in New Hampshire care about this? Because we are the Live Free or Die state and we care about intrusive government exerting its will without restraint. As that trusty Yankee from Massachusetts (Thoreau) once said, the only place for a just man in an unjust society, is jail.

Judge Scheindlin wrote a 200 page opinion, which Mad Dog may or may not have the patience to plow through, but already on the New Yorker blog is a post analyzing the statistical basis on which she based at least part of her opinion. She was trying to gather numbers to support the idea that stop and frisk is used not to find weapons carried by malefactors who harbor criminal intent, but to intimidate minorities into passivity.  

The police argue they stop more blacks and Hispanics because it is among this group you find the most weapons and 80% of the crimes are committed by this group. So you go where the money is.

Of course, this is profiling. It means if you see a Black man in a Black neighborhood, you stop him because he is walking while Black, and statistically he is more likely to have a gun than the white guy in this neighborhood. For the same reason, you see a Black man in a white neighborhood, you stop him, because, ipso facto, he's suspicious.

After wending her way through a bunch of absurd academic "studies" and many statistics, the Judge finally arrives at the conclusion we all knew to begin with--in this country you are not supposed to be stopped and accused of something unless you do something to justify the suspicion; in this country you are not supposed to be considered suspicious because you are Black or Hispanic.

It doesn't take academic studies (especially poorly designed, derivative studies in which summaries of pieces of paper are examined) to allow Mad Dog or any mentating citizen to conclude police who are encouraged to throw men up against a wall will happily do this as a way of intimidating, dominating and establishing who is the alpha dog in the neighborhood. 

Mad Dog recalls walking down First Avenue in Manhattan, in 1971, carrying a long umbrella on what turned out to be a sunny day. A police cruiser pulled over. A policeman jumped out and demanded the umbrella, which Mad Dog handed over, dumbfounded, curious, but not intimidated because he was white in a white neighborhood and had never been mistreated by the white police from the 20th precinct.  The policeman pulled and twisted the curved wooden handle and finally handed it back.  "Just checking to see if there was a sword inside." 

That would have been an entirely different experience had Mad Dog been Black or had Mad Dog been walking in Bedford Stuyvestant. As a white guy in a white neighborhood, it was just an amusing kerfuffle.  As a Black guy, in any neighborhood, it would have been an insult and a nasty experience. You would have felt judged. You are Black; therefore, you are dangerous and you should be treated as a potential felon.
 
You have only to watch "The Wire"to understand what this is all about. It's the West Baltimore way of policing and it's done by the most thuggish of the police, with a certain glee--they have a license to bully, and they like to throw their weight around, especially when they have the billy club and the back up and the citizen they are humping is defenseless. 

Mayor Blumenthal says Judge Scheindlin does not understand the Constitution and he says she does not understand police work. 

She may not--Mad Dog has not read her opinion.  But Mad Dog thinks the rest of us understand the Constitution and the Fourth Amendment which forbids unreasonable search and seizure because even in the 18th century Americans knew they did not want to give police too much license, too much power.  

And Mad Dog thinks he understands the policeman who stops and frisks. He is the top dog humping. 

Judge Scheindlin knows what she sees. 
Don't we all?

Monday, August 12, 2013

James Surowiecki, Unions, Jobs, Minimal Wages

James Surowiecki





Mad Dog knew there must be more information out there and that information would help everyone understand the problem with the protests against Walmart and McDonald's paying poverty wages.

This information is provided by James Surowiecki, writing in this week's New Yorker.

It turns out Walmart was founded on the premise of paying low wages--the idea was these stores would employ underemployed married women who would be supplementing a family income. The profit margin of Walmart is 3-4 cents on the dollar; the profit margin for McDonald's is 6 cents on the dollar.

The profit margin at General Motors and Ford, in their heyday, is unspecified by Surowiecki, but presumably it was several orders of magnitude higher. 

The reason people are flocking to Walmart and McDonalds for jobs is there are no other jobs out there, so now instead of teenagers working for pocket money and housewives working for movie money, we've got breadwinners working one 8 hour shift at McDonalds and a second as security guards and still struggling to meet the rent, pay the doctor and day care.

In Germany and the Netherlands, these low paying jobs may suffice because so much else is paid for by the government--there is a stronger safety net in those countries.

What we really need is for "the economy as a whole to grown faster, because that would both increase the supply of good jobs and improve the bargaining power of low-wage earners," Surowiecki notes.  He cites Jared Bernstein (an economist at the Center for Budget and Policy Priorities) "The best friend that low-wage workers have is a strong economy and a tight job market." As Surowiecki notes, "It isn't enough to make bad jobs better. We need to create better jobs."

So, aiming the outrage at McDonalds or Walmart for providing only low wage jobs is misguided. If the government put lots of people back to work on infrastructure building jobs, Walmart and McDonalds would have to raise wages and nobody would feel at all sorry for them when they go begging for employees. Nobody should then be talking about cutting these companies any tax breaks.  We can quote free market theory right back at them then.

The profits from the combined profits of all the major retailers, restaurant chains and super markets in the Fortune 500 are smaller than the profits of Apple alone, Surowiecki notes. But Apple employees just 76,000 people while those combined low margin enterprises employ 5.6 million people. Nobody is walking around with picket signs in front of Apple saying, "Hire a million more employees."  

"The grim truth of those numbers is that low wages are a big part of why these companies are able to stay profitable while offering low prices."

Consumers want low prices for commodities--they don't shop in the small, Ma and Pop stores with the big mark ups on sweaters any more--they don't want to pay more for a smile and sales clerk who knows their names. They want an object for a price. The consumer is every bit as ruthless as the bosses at Walmart--they want low prices and don't talk to them about loyalty or worrying about whether the woman who rings you up at the register has health insurance. All I want to know about is: how much does the shirt cost?

The problem you run into when you start trying to inject loyalty and social consciousness into the transaction at the register is the same problem we had when we were talking about buying shirts with Made in the USA labels--nobody cares where the shirt was made. If the shirt from China looks good, and it costs $5 less than the shirt made in Peoria, forget Peoria.

Mad Dog's grandfather, who labored away in sweat shops making less than minimum wage before there even was a minimum wage, joined a union and his life was improved. But with the global marketplace, that union saw "Made in the USA" sweat shops close down, and ship out to China. 

There has been a sea change in the American economy.  We used to make things here and people were paid more to make them: Bethlehem Steel, Ford, GM made things here and could pay high wages. Now those things can be made by low wage earners in China and Mexico. What is America to do? Should we insist entrepreneurs open shirt factories in the USA and pay their workers well and try to sell their shirts at $30 when the same shirt is selling for $15 at Walmart?

What would Mad Dog do? 

Mad Dog likes public works: Until the private sector can figure out how to create companies like Apple which can employ 5 million people making whatever, then the government can employ those 5 million restoring bridges, building cell phone towers, laying down cable, delivering water, building bicycle trails, high speed railroads, building windmills and solar panels. 

Will that increase the deficit and the national debt? Maybe. Maybe not: with all those people paying taxes, maybe it will not . 

But if the debt goes up, so be it.  Call Paul Krugman; he can figure out what to do with it.

 

Wednesday, August 7, 2013

Alexandria Goddard, Ariel Levy, Stuebenville Ohio

Alexandria "Brockovich" Goddard
This week's New Yorker has an article about the real America, the heartland, where 17 year old high school football players are knights and the adults are still mired in their own memories of high school, because as Alexandria Goddard, a local blogger who rode to fame on the back of an alledged rape has said, "Grown men. Twenty years out of high school and they're still reliving it. They can't get over that their lives suck."

Ms. Goddard has more piquant observations, but her main interest appears less social commentary than trying to dredge up a career as the Erin Brockovich of Steubenville, which is a phrase her new "agent" used to hype her new book about the rape which she hopes to monetize. She says "We do have a rape culture and violence against women."  Well, that sells. 

Ariel Levy, who writes about the Ms. Goddard, allowing Ms. Goddard to do all the damage which needs to be done to Ms. Goddard does buy the rape culture bit. "Worldwide , women between fifteen and four-four are more likely to be injured or die from male violence than from traffice accidents, cancer, malaria and the effects of war combined. This sustained brutality would be impossible without a culture which enables it; a value system in which women are currency and sex is something that men get--or take--from them."

Well, Mad Dog was with her, for a while, until the malaria got thrown in there. First of all, even without the malaria, Mad Dog's law of large numbers holds that once you get to really big numbers, like millions, you are almost always quoting studies which are wrong and you no longer know what you are talking about. You are saying this is a really big problem because I want it to be because I'm talking about it. 

The thing about malaria: It kills more peopel world wide than any other disease. That's a big number and likely has some meaning, even though death certificate data is almost completely unreliable and where malaria is killing people they don't even do death certificates.

But Mad Dog digresses. 

What interests Mad Dog is the whole problem of young women who get drunk and the young men who see their drunkeness as an opportunity.

Before everyone carried a smart phone, the young men tended to simply sneak off to a quiet room with the drunk girl/woman, but the smart phone has introduced a new dimension to this age old event: Now the young men are not content, in some cases, to avail themselves of a willing, if incompetent, partner, they film the event and brag about it. 

Oh, America! 

When George W. Bush confronted those nasty pictures from Abu Ghraib prison and he said, "This is not who we are," he, apparently, could not have been more wrong. This was exactly who we were and still are.

In the case of the prisoners, of course, there was no complicity. 
In the cases of the girl from West Virginia who may or may not have been raped in Steubenville, there was a problem of complicity--in that she reportedly was determined to get drunk and to  "go with" her accused attacker. 

Then there is also the crowd, the modern day Greek chorus, showing up in masks with signs outside courtrooms, posting photos of the accused males on line with a listing of their class schedules so others can show up outside classroom and chant "rapist." Thirteen hundred people "from across the country" showed up for a rally at the Jefferson County Courthouse, holding signs "Rape Is Not A Sport." Do these people not have jobs? What are they doing in Steubenville, Ohio? 

But then there is Goddard, who got to appear on "Dr. Phil"  and now describes herself as a "catalyst for change. I cause change." She describes the prosecutor in the case as "gravy legs" because "gravy spreads easily." That sort of came out of nowhere, except to say people often accuse others of what they see in themselves.  Ms. Goddard has moved to the Mojave Desert where she has a new boyfriend, a Marine Corps drill sergeant. She likes soldiers, cops and football players. "I got a little boyfriend and he's dark and delicious and twenty-six."

So, where was Mad Dog? He keeps getting distracted. Drunk girls. Football players who video and post themselves having sex, adults who never get past high school, psychologically, and Alexandria Goddard, who rockets to fame and gets herself an agent by blogging about it all.

Is this a fantastic country, or what?

At least it's not New Hampshire.



 

Saturday, August 3, 2013

Kill Obamacare! Republicans with Pitchforks and Torches






Paul Krugman, writing in the New York Times yesterday, observed, with some amusement, the frantic efforts of the Republicans in the House to scuttle, amend, kill by a thousand cuts, Obamacare.

In the end, he concluded what is going on is more than simple pique, but a sort of panic.  Panic, that Obamacare may just yet work. It may, eventually, be as popular as the same program is in Massachusetts, as popular as Medicare and Social Security, the two other Democratic programs which people love and which the Republicans hate and have been trying to kill under the guise of saving them year after year.

Watching, "Prime Minister's Questions," the British version of CNN where the Prime Minister must answer questions from the opposition and from his own party in open, unrehearsed session, Mad Dog has long been struck by how many of the questions pertain to the operation of the National Health Care system. It is clear that once health care becomes a government program, a great deal of what government officials do gets devoted to health care.

Obamacare is not a single payor system, not government health care and Congressmen need not fear that they will be answering constitutents questions the way their British counterparts have to do.  But that might be part of the the reason for the hysteria on the part of Repbulicans:  Suppose, some day, we actually have to do something for the people who elected us! There would be no time for hob nobbing with the rich people, the Koch brothers, if we have to investigate why the clinic promised for our districts has been delayed or is looking threadbare.

President Obama got all he could out the the Congress he had when it came to Obamacare. But what he did is nothing close to what Medicare became. It simply corrected some of the most egregious violations of humankind by our current system:  It forbids excluding people because they are or might someday need medical care.  It may well reduce health insurance premiums.  But American medicine will remain a business, not a program.

The best we can hope for is, if the Republicans come to power in 2014 winning the Senate, and they repeal Obamacare, what will rise, eventually, to replace it, will be Medicare from cradle to grave.

Tuesday, July 30, 2013

Living Wage: The Concept



Any discussion of the "living wage" is fraught with emotional response. 
Mad dog has to admit his own bias here: His grandfather was a member of the International Ladies Garment Workers Union and fought for better wages and working conditions as a basic human right.
On the other hand, Mad Dog once ran a small business with two employees and his margin was very tight and salaries which got out of hand could easily have sunk that ship; salaries constituted  the highest cost of running that business. 

To Mad Dog's mind there is a significant difference between the Mom and Pop store which hires one or two employees and which operates on a tight margin and is vulnerable to a variety of market vicissitudes and a corporation like McDonald's, Walmart or Wendy's, which generates large numbers in terms of gross revenues and the main question becomes: Who has a right to divide up the distribution of these large incomes, and to what end?

Most of the arguments Mad Dog has seen in support the living wage strike him as irrelevant and immaterial: They center on the hardships low wages cause workers; they seek to evoke sympathy for workers in low skill jobs who have difficulty supporting families on low wages, which is not to say we ought not care about these people but we are still trying to focus on who is responsible for improving their lot--an employer or the government?

No, the issue which seems relevant  to Mad Dog is the question of what share of the reward for business done ought to belong to the employee? One side argues that the employer should seek to maximize the company's profit and to do this he needs to reduce his overhead ruthlessly, and wages paid are a substantial part of overhead. It is not the business owner's responsibility to be sure employees have a happy life--it is only his responsibility to be sure the company thrives. 
One may argue that happy employees ultimately benefit the company, so it is better for the bosses to pay more, but in the case of fast food restaurants, that assertion may well have been disproved over time and over many types of fast food franchise operations.  And, in any case, that's up to the bosses to discern.

The more relevant argument would be: If there is a "pie" of gross revenues, in any business, that pie would be impossible without labor. The worker sells his services to the employer, just as the meat supplier sells his raw material to the restaurant and the employee ought to be in a position to bargain for his services, just as the meat supplier is in a position to bargain for the price of his meat.  But under educated workers are typically in no position to bargain.  

The solution seems apparent: No living wage legislation is necessary as long as laws ensure the potential work force has the position to bargain, i.e., as long as unions are fostered by public policy.  

Laws ensure the local government gets its cut of the company's revenues, and laws ensure the federal government gets its cut. And the real estate people get their cut. And the accountants and the lawyers. Lots of people line up to get their cut, which the business owner understands is simply part of doing business.

But when it comes to his employees, the owners often seem to feel these are burdensome evil doers who are out to bankrupt him.

The corporations may argue that  increasing wages  will mean a loss of profits, but this simply means the distribution of monies will be shifted away from stockholders and toward employees, and there ought to be nothing immoral about that.

In fact, there may be social benefit to the shift of money from stock investors to workers. Mad Dog can imagine many benefits.

All the arguments from the bosses's side: Workers don't have to work for us, nobody is forcing them to work for us, if they don't like working in a city with low minimum wage, let them move out of town, etc, etc would be answered by a strong union. The union can say to the owners of businesses:  You don't have to hire any employees. That is your choice, but if you want to hire greeters for your store or if you want employees to flip hamburgers, well, then you have to deal with us. We'll make sure the employees get their cut of the gross income. Your net profit will be smaller, but try running a company without employees.






Monday, July 29, 2013

The Age of Superficiality



C.P. Snow wrote with insight about the different worlds, the different cultures of science and the humanities.  As his country, Great Britain, embarked upon a government run health service, this great divide was faced directly by the United Kingdom,  and the Brits continue to struggle with it.

The Brits, of course, have a fundamentally different class structure from ours, and that has directly affected the work force which delivers health care in the U.K.. Physicians as public employees can do well, if they are among the elite specialists, but they do not, in general, make as much money as their American counterparts; nor do they expect to. British high school students go directly into medical school at age 18 and they graduate with a MB, (Bachelors in Medicine.)  The vast majority go into primary care, and function on a level somewhere between our primary care physicians and our new class of practitioners non-physician providers of primary care. 

For the Brits, most doctors are decidedly middle class, and do not expect to be living in the biggest houses, taking luxurious vacations or driving expensive cars. They know this going in, and so  people who seek an upscale life do not go into medicine. Entering the medical profession in England is not a way toward social or economic upward mobility.

This is now occurring among primary care practitioners in the United States. There are new groups of people who have not gone to medical school who are setting up independent practices or joining practices with physicians who have not gone to medical school or done residencies. They can write prescriptions and do in office surgeries, but they have less training than doctors and they know they cannot charge as much as doctors. "Advanced Practice Registered Nurses" (who have gone to nursing school, then another 2 years in a training program) or "Physicians' Assistants" who have typically gone to college and then a 2 year program after college are two of the most numerous types of "practitioners" without doctor of medicine degrees.


The emergence of these different levels of practitioners-- nurse practitioners, certified diabetes educators, physician's assistants, certified nurse midwives-- came from many different places, but surely one interest group which gave rise to all this was the  university/medical school,  seeing another way to make money, minting new diploma holders.  They, of course, loudly proclaimed they were minting these diplomas for the most commendable reasons:  more practitioners were needed to meet an urgent need in the health care system: waiting times for appointments with doctors could be reduced if there were more providers of medical care. Increase the number of bodies in exam rooms available to see patients,  and waiting times would diminish.

And there was another benefit touted by the alternative practitioner model: since these practitioners were paid less, it would cost the system less. 
If less serious, simpler illnesses could be seen by the "barefoot doctor" equivalent, i.e., by people who trained fewer years and could be employed at a lower cost or could enter into private practice, but they would be reimbursed by insurance at  a lower scale, thus lowering overall costs of medical care in this country which spends more on medical care than any other without seeing a commensurate elevated level in the quality of that care.

The problem is, in our wild and wooly medical care "system" nobody has ever really bothered to critically evaluate  that hypothesis: Lower paid practitioners seeing patients will lower the overall cost of medicine.

What Mad Dog has seen from his worm's eye view is no such thing is happening. In fact, in medicine, more practitioners has always meant more referrals and more consultations and the patient who would have seen one doctor for a complaint now sees three.  In fact, lower cost practitioners may order more tests, may order expensive tests which are unnecessary . They often function as traffic cops, seeing large number of patients every day, and doing triage--the patient goes out with a referral to the cardiologist for his chest pain, the endocrinologist for his high blood sugar, the rheumatologist for his joint pain and the orthopedic surgeon for his knee pain.  It is possible these triage people actually add costs by charging for their match making services and then sending patients along to more expensive specialists at a greater rate than the physician who takes care of more problems in his office at the first visit.

In fact, consultants will say, behind closed doors, the number of inappropriate referrals they get from the barefoot doctors is much higher than they ever got before such a class of practitioner existed. Patients arrive with the wrong preliminary tests ordered, having had expensive tests done which did nothing to answer the real questions central to the solution of their cases. 
Alexandre Yersin

All the fuss about Obamacare, about electronic medical records, may well be much to do about nothing.  As long as the primary driving force of medical care remains commerce, the profit motive, everything else is nibbling around the edges. Each new group of practitioners will struggle with the same demands of costs, profits, overhead, cash flow and the needs of the patient will always remain secondary.

When Alexandre Yersin went to Hong Kong in 1898 to investigate the cause of the outbreak of plague, he established his lab in a bamboo hut . He collected samples as he was trained to do by Louis Pasteur. He had to work in a bamboo hut because the British, who ruled Hong Kong, had invited a famous Japanese scientist and his huge retinue and they installed this great man in a hotel and set him up in the largest hospital to do his work. He had the "big name." He was the man all the people in the British hierarchy knew. He was the man people in power listened to.
And he missed the organism cold. 
Yersin, working humbly in his hut,  knew the science, and he got the right bug, made the diagnosis, and he actually raised the first vaccine, the first effective treatment for the Black Death,  which once wiped out half the population of Europe and still lived among rats in the Orient, to emerge every few hundred years to wipe out a few cities.

The implacable thing about medicine is:  There is a correct diagnosis and there are incorrect diagnoses.  

So far, it appears to Mad Dog, the Atul Gawandes and the big names in  the world of health care delivery and health care systems have simply missed the diagnosis, when it comes to what ails the American medical delivery non system we all live with today.
Dr. Gawande, a very well meaning man, a MacArthur fellow and a surgeon at one of the Harvard hospitals, writes in the New Yorker and he is widely read by people outside of the world of medicine. Francis Collins, who heads an institute at the National Institutes of Health, but who has no idea what the practice of medicine in the trenches is all about,  says Gawande is one of his favorite authorities. President Obama reads his articles and he was thrilled by Gawande's article about two hospitals in Texas, one wasteful of resources, one efficient and lean. All we had to do was to follow Dr. Gawande's advice, and the whole health care system  could save billions. 

Sad to say, he, like the Japanese star,  chasing plague in Hong Kong, was chasing the wrong bug.

But how do you get the people who do not know the world of science,  who have the power of the purse, to know which scientist to believe?

Somehow, the United States government managed to figure out which scientists could build an atomic bomb before the Germans could.  After being outclassed by German engineers the entire war, the United States managed to gather a group of Italian, German ex-pats and  American scientists,  and they got it right.  The Japanese built a fighter air plane, the Zero, which was vastly superior to any American fighter. But the Japanese economy was only 1/20 as large as the American economy and the Americans could build 20 times as many airplanes.  America has been able to muddle through to the right answers, or at least to answers which worked well enough. 

But in the case of designing a system for health care delivery, we have not succeeded. It is easier to destroy than to create. We have been great at blowing up cities and destroying but not so good at creating life saving systems.

Part of this failure can be laid at the door of politicians who think of health care,  or resisting changes to health care,  as a vehicle for re election. Part of it can be laid at the door of well meaning people, who just cannot fathom what goes on behind the exam room door. 

The people in positions of power can persist in getting it wrong but saying it's all right.  Until that changes, we are pretty much stuck with the wrong bug.

 




Thursday, July 25, 2013

Congress: Structural Defects




When discussing why the Republicans in the House of Representatives feel they can vote against a law granting a path to citizenship for the children of illegal aliens, children who, through no fault of their own, wound up growing up illegal in America, the analysts on National Public Radio noted that 75% of these Republicans come from districts which are so conservative and white that they are actually representing the will of their constituents, or at least in no danger if they vote against this bill.

Of course, as the demographics of the country change, voting against bills which are ardently supported by Hispanics or Blacks i.e., non whites, can, in a national election hurt Republicans, but all politics is local for Republicans. And how can this be? If the demographics of the country are shifting toward non white, how can the Republicans keep their death grip on the House?

This is a phenomenon which has to do with the details, and apparently the details play out this way: In a state like North Carolina, if you had a long, slender corridor which has a dense Black population, you can make that one Congressional district, so all the Black votes elect only one Representative, whereas, if these voters were not packed together, they would be voting in 3 different districts and their numbers would be sufficient to elect three Representatives to the House. 
Packing in North Carolina 


Or, in the case of Ohio, if you have a dense population of liberals living in a city, who could elect a liberal Representative, you can split these voters off and group a third of these voters in each of three surrounding conservative suburbs, so their votes are diluted and no liberal Representatives are elected.


Cracking in Columbus Ohio 
[NB: Illustrations are from Wikipedia]

So now we have not only the best Congress money can buy, but the most Republican Congress the Gerrymander can produce.

As a result, we can elect President Obama, but he is faced with a Congress which can block every action he recommends.  We have a Congress which believes in austerity budgets, which froths at the mouth about the fictitious bogeyman of "budget deficits" and balancing the budget , a Tea Party House which digs in its heels, determined to block every attempt at governing. We have a Republican Congress which is committed to anarchy and the Tea Party Way.

And this process is aided and abetted by a Supreme Court which, as a political legacy of 8 years of President Bush, will continue to support the Tea Party for the next 20 years.

We have no easy way to fix any of this, but one thing is sure: If even the good guys, like Senator Jeanne Shaheen cannot be persuaded to vote to change the Supreme Court, then we are truly lost.  The Democrats have looked into the eyes of the beast, across the aisle and they decided that the soft answer turneth away wrath. They have decided the worst thing they can do is to look confrontational, combative, unpleasant. They are confronted with a tiger and they pull from the scabbard at their side a large, white feather.