New Hampshire Death Spiral

Demographics sounds like a major yawner.
The study of statistical profiles of populations.
But a demographer, Peter Francese has written (along with co author Lorraine Merrill) a short book about New Hampshire demographics which has, for Mad Dog, been nothing short of revelatory. "Communities & Consequences II" which has also been produced as a documentary.

Obadiah Youngblood Lesser Boar's Head 

It has tied together a set of observations which puzzled Mad Dog for the over 12 years he has lived in the state, but never seemed a coherent whole, until now.

1/ Mad Dog, questioning neighbors about why they kept voting against the warrant articles to refurbish the middle school (Hampton academy), was told that the renovations would be too expensive and would raise property taxes.

2/ When Mad Dog replied that good schools are the one thing a community can do for the future of everyone, he was told that was a lovely sentiment, but dollars and cents mattered more. When Mad Dog said good schools were what raised property values in the in the Maryland county where he once lived,  that people paid premiums for houses in good school districts, he was told New Hampshire is different,

3/ In the small town of Hampton, Mad Dog has been struck by new developments of homes occupied by retirees, over 55 communities, where children may visit but not live.

4/ Mad Dog marveled at the amateur New Hampshire legislature, in which representatives serve virtually unpaid, making it impossible for anyone but retired folks or housewives or the independently wealthy  to serve. "It's the closest thing to real democracy" his neighbors said. "We don't want people to serve for the money, but because they want good government." So young people who need to make a living need not apply. 

5/ The third rail of New Hampshire politics is the phrase "income tax." Any candidate to fails to "take the pledge" to never sign into law a state income tax is in fact signing his or her own political death warrant.

What Francese & Merrill document is that since 1990 New Hampshire has sought to become senescent,  relentlessly and intentionally, and has succeeded remarkably and is now the 2nd oldest state in the union, behind Maine.

Persona non grata 

It has done this by means of laws passed by its state legislature and by local governments, zoning boards, town councils which have discouraged young families with children from moving to the state by virtually banning "affordable housing" or apartments which might be attractive to young people. By simple rules requiring houses to be built on 2 acre lots, housing density, affordable housing has been discouraged.  The state encourages older, wealthier people to buy second homes in New Hampshire which remain unoccupied most of the year, further reducing available housing and driving up real estate prices. 

Workforce housing, which is located near places of employment, which is year round is increasingly rare in the state.

Affordable housing in New Hampshire towns often comes down to areas occupied by mobile homes, which tend not to house children but more often retired adults.

Obadiah Youngblood  Studebaker Mansion

So this is a "perfect storm" of an aged legislature, which regards children as an expensive burden, which should not be their problem but someone else's problem. 
Children require schools and schools, funded only by property taxes, raise taxes.  In some towns older people are forgiven some portion of their property taxes, but they are not considered to be burdensome as they reduce the tax base; it's the children who are considered a burden. And since the state abjures sales tax and income tax the only way to support schools is through property taxes. 

Other people's children are simply viewed as other people's problems. There is no sense of community among people who see the next generation as the other.

Of course, this is not seen as selfishness by the aging parts of the New Hampshire population; it is seen as self preservation.  "I worked hard for my Social Security and Medicare" and now I don't want to give up dollars to help those coming behind me; they can work for themselves.

As Fracese shows, this is actually a misconception: The fact is, more young families do not add many students to the local schools, where enrollment has been on the decline for 30 years, since efforts to discourage young families have been in full swing. It will take years to repopulate schools in districts which have been relentlessly denuded of children for the past 30 years. 

Obadiah Youngblood  North Hampton Salt Marshes 

It's been a effort at ossification.  The new--new families, possibly immigrant families, possibly poor families--are seen as a threat. It is as if the whole state has decided to become a retirement community. 

And as the death rates climb and the birth rates fall, graduates of  New Hampshire colleges and high schools leave forever, seeking happier hunting grounds, where they are wanted.

And they take with them the skills and energy to revitalize and grow those towns in Massachusetts, New York, Pennsylvania and Maryland which welcome them.

Expensive burdens 

It sounds like that P.D. James novel, "Children of Men" where the birth rate has fallen to virtually zero, where infertility reigns and babies are never seen. 
But rather than seeing this as a demographic and economic disaster, a dystopia, the current insular population of New Hampshire welcomes this as a sort of Shangri la.