Can We Replace Joe Biden In Time? The Pappas Insight

Last night I attended an event for Congressman Chris Pappas and the first question he got from the assembled loyal Democrats on the patio was whether or not we should replace President Biden, presumably at an open Democratic National Convention.

Representative Pappas

Mr. Pappas answered a slightly different, but more important question: He said he did not know how things would play out but he assured us he was as appalled by the debate as anyone, as we all were, but two things are now true: 1/ There is active discussion among Democrats in power about whether Biden can accomplish the most important task confronting him in the next 5 months--defeating Donald Trump. 2/ That the most important task right now is not governing, but defeating Donald Trump. Without that, all else is meaningless.

The man who asked the question prefaced it by saying he was a longtime fan of Mr. Biden and Mr. Biden has been an astonishingly successful President, but now what?

Two things here: when Chris Pappas ran among a field of 11 contenders in 2018, he was my 10th choice. When I asked him about how he intended to confront Jim Jordan an all those Republican goons in Congress he replied he did not intend to go to Washington to engage in a food fight. And I thought, well you're going to get one, and worse, a knife fight more like it and how are you going to survive and fight for us?

Turned out, I was wrong. He has been a strong voice in Congress without being belligerent, and he is known as being "bipartisan" whatever that may mean in 2024. He criticizes Speaker Johnson, who emerged from the "Freedom Caucus" and he belittles Marjorie Taylor Greene as being not a Congresswoman but a "performance artist." With sly humor, he is effective and strong.

Which brings me to the question at hand: Can we get Mr. Biden to step down, and if we can, are we at this late date able to procure a candidate who can beat Mr. Trump?

We will hear lots of reasons why we should stick with Trump but the two big ones are:

1. It was just one bad night. 

But, of course, it was not just one bad night. Since 2020 Mr. Biden has been seen to be old and halting and his frozen posture and face at the Juneteenth White House event went viral, and his frozen face, contorted in a bizarre grimace, his confusion, his garbled answers which sunk even his best ripostes simply confirmed what everyone has been thinking and saying: He looks like he is in the end stages of Parkinson's Disease.

2. It's too late in the game: 

Who could we find to actually run successfully? It is this we should address first.

What would it take to beat Mr. Trump?

•  FAME: There are plenty of wonderful Democrats in Congress and among the governors: Jamie Raskin (Rep D-MD) Jay Pritzker, the governor of Illinois. Senator Sheldon Whitehouse, (D-RI). Senator Amy Klobuchar (D-MN). Congressman Eric Swalwell (D-CA). And Gavin Newsome, governor of California sure looks the part.

But there are potent reasons why each one of them would stand a good chance of being beaten, and one reason which applies to all of them, save, perhaps Newsome, and that is they have no national fanbase. 

They are simply not famous enough. Some of them tried to get famous, but withered in the harsh light of public examination, like Klobuchar. And Newsome would be an easy target for Trump and his nefarious minions, who would play endless clips of the homeless in LA, the parched farmlands of the Central Valley and the freaks of San Francisco.

Mr. Trump spent years building his national fame, on TV and in cities with his name in five story letters on buildings--even in Chicago. He knew that fame is the sine qua non, that which without it you cannot have anything else, of success for public office.

President Zelensky

Reading the biography "Zelensky" (Serhii Rudenko) you can see that democracies everywhere, especially if they are not parliamentary democracies, depend on the people feeling they know the President. In England, the Prime Minister is actually chosen not by the people but by the elected members of the party which wins the most seats in parliament, so fame is less essential, although Boris Johnson and others have parlayed their public appeal into victory for their party candidates.

Zelensky was a famous actor, far more famous and dominant than Ronald Reagan was when he ran for President. Zelensky played a President on TV and was beloved in every household as a bewildered and indignant everyman who challenged corrupt authority and won, surprising himself and all the entrenched power mongers. Of course, once in office, his popularity crashed, faced with real problems in the real world, but he responded heroically, and with a sense of drama enough to galvanize his countrymen when Vladimir Putin launched the invasion. 

Offered secure American transport out of the country, after several assassination attempts on him, Zelensky famously replied, "I don't need a ride: I need ammunition."

He had a sense of drama, the wit to turn the tide, and a sense of the importance of being a Superhero model at times when push came to shove.

•  Relative Youth: Were it not for his age--he will be 83 this year, Tony Fauci would fit the bill. He is almost as famous as Donald Trump and widely loved--also widely hated, but the conspiracists, Republicans, Proud Boys are only 40% and the other 60% love Fauci. His lack of political experience is meaningless and he has lots of executive experience. But, even as a youthful 83, he'd still be older than Trump, and the big reason to replace Biden is he's too old, and  in a bad way.

So who is famous enough and young enough to beat Mr. Trump?  

There are no politicians with a national base compared to Trump's. 

And No academics (except Fauci). 

So, we are down to Hollywood, just as Ukraine was.

When it comes to fame in America, there is only sports, entertainment and politics. 

President Hanks

My personal favorite would be Tom Hanks.

He is widely beloved, just 67 years old, and he has a huge fan base. 

He is the choice of veterans, military types, Superhero fans--he saved Private Ryan--and he'd appeal to suburban housewives (Sleepless in Seattle), kid safe (Polar Express), has lots of executive experience (producer of "Band of Brothers" ) and he's likeable. 

And he'd be, decent fellow that he is, a huge contrast with the snarling incoherent Trump.

And everybody knows him.

So lets draft Tom Hanks.

John F. Kennedy was nominated at an open Democratic National Convention (beating Lyndon Johnson and several other contenders) and won in the fall election.

Hanks could do it.